Supply basis
Volume, grade or composition, variability, mining or collection cost, ownership and availability.
04 / ECONOMICS
Follow every
unit of value.
A compelling revenue estimate is not a margin. Compare the full route from delivered feedstock through qualified product and cash received.
PRODUCT VALUE−RECOVERY LOSS−PROCESS + DELIVERY=DECISION
MODEL ARCHITECTURE
Put assumptions where they can be challenged.
Process yield
Measured recovery by stage, reagent and energy use, throughput, uptime and waste handling.
Qualification
Product specification, rejected lots, packaging, QA and independent buyer acceptance.
Route to customer
Freight, storage, insurance, tariffs and working capital between production and payment.
Build and maintain
Equipment, infrastructure, installation, contingency, sustaining capital and closure obligations.
Scenario ranges
Sensitivity to recovery, energy cost, price, schedule and delayed qualification.
MODEL DISCIPLINE
Make uncertainty visible.
Use separate columns for measured data, supplier quotations, third party estimates and management assumptions. Date every input. Model a downside scenario where at least one of the critical assumptions fails.
Early stage projects can compare alternatives before exact prices exist. A relative comparison still needs consistent boundaries for each route.
Build an evidence register ↗“The useful number is the one that survives a change in the assumptions.”
Rock Fuels principle / 04